2012: The End of the World As We Know It

[Zero Phoenix]

All of you conspiracy gurus or pretentious posters might think you know what this thread is about. Thing is you don't. The purpose of this discussion is to predict the framework of the world in 2012 based on the current economic climate. Right now America is in a terrible economic state and even though Congress passed measures to get through 2011, there aren't any concrete plans in place to preserve America's place as the dominant superpower by 2012.

The U.K. could be doing better. However, if we look at China's growth and India's potential it appears that the east may overtake the west as the economic power spot of the world.

Continuing, the world as we know it may very well end in 2012. America may cease to be the world's superpower and may be replaced by China. We may see the gradual collapse of the western world begin next year and replaced by an eastern economic power structure within the generation. For those who still are lost I'm not referring to the apocalypse, merely a changing of the world's power structure. And because I must explain everything my objectives are outlined below:

1) Discuss the economic state of eastern and western nations.

2) Compare the economic structures of eastern and western nations.

3) Using this as a background, ascertain America's ability to hold onto the reins of power for another century.

Guidelines: I shouldn't have to state this but you've all given me reason to. Keep it clean. No offensive posts. Please refrain from bashing a country's economic systems. If Russia has to kill off a few minorities or America has to bomb a few countries to stay afloat then that's the system they've chosen to employ. Rather than bash the economic system of a country, point out its flaws and ways to improve it. If you cannot agree to these guidelines don't post.

 

[-lexus-]

While Western Nations have a problem, their problems have increased to the point where its no longer just a threat to western economies, but a threat for the whole economy. Especially China is terrified of whats gonna happen with America. They have loaned them so much money, and if America defaults on its payments (unlikely though) or the dollar becomes worthless, China has a major problem. On top of that, China's main export market is America. If American consumption falls, so falls the export of China to America. I believe China already announced to lay a heavier emphasis on increasing the market at home, clearly showing they are not going to be affected as much when America falls.

Europe has similar problems as America basically, however, it has slightly more options of getting out of it, and possibly the political system isnt as polarized as in America. The EU is now at a crossroad. They got three options. Let the whole thing blow up, meaning kicking out southern countries out of the Euro, and basically, letting the EU fall apart. Or they get through it but barely. In which case the next crisis will be pretty soon. Or, the leaders show some balls, tell the populists within Europen to go fuck themselves, and take deep, far going measures to ensure this never happens, both strengthening the position of the EU on the international field as well as furthering EU integration. I personally think though, that options 1 and 3 are unlikely. Right now, everyone is to scared to solve anything properly.

As for India and China, I cant really comment on their state, although I believe that both have important interests in the EU and US, and that a catastrophic failure in either will have far reaching consequences for them. Also, no matter how fast their economies grow, they are still relatively small compared to the EU or US (I think about one third) and their growth is largely dependent on export to the US and EU.

As for their economic structures, Id say its all relatively the same. Capitalism. China might be a bit more stable due to government involvement on a lot of levels. Cant really comment on it though.

Last question. Well, I think I said it somewhere else as well, but America's size guarantees it remains a super power. They will just not be able to remain a super power all on their own though. The American government is fucked up. The tea party holds a part hostage, and they are almost incapable of compromise. Their ideas are just downright stupid (smaller government just isnt the solution) and as long as they remain in a relatively powerful position America is crippled and the economy will only suffer further. And with that, the economy of the rest of the world. America will put itself on a side track, and will have to share its power between Russia, China, India and Brazil.

 

[Arachna]

The US has been building up a huge debt with the Chinese.That is true.
In the recent past, China has defended its investment in US Treasury bonds.
Luxembourg holds 100.000.000.000 USD treasury securities?

China lent at least $110bn (£68bn) to governments and firms in other developing countries in 2009 and 2010, surpassing the $100.3bn from the World Bank.That is scary,even to me.We all know money makes the world go round.
So i digged a bit.And this is what i found about America's debt. I was curious.What can i say.
And just to warn you. This is the general data from U.S. Treasury.
Right now America isn't in a good position.:shrug:

Spoiler: Owners of US Treasury bonds in 2010

China, Mainland 906.8
Japan 877.4
United Kingdom 477.6 (it had 258.6)
Oil Exporters 213.9
All Other 161
Brazil 177.6
Carib Bnkng Ctrs 133.7
Hong Kong 139.2
Taiwan 131.2
Russia 131.6
Switzerland 101.3
Canada 125.2
Luxembourg 78.5
Thailand 66.2
Germany 60.1
Singapore 63.6
Ireland 41.4
Korea, South 41.1
India 41.1
Mexico 34.9
France 35.1
Belgium 15.7
Egypt 34.9
Turkey 27.6
Poland 26.3
Italy 21
Norway 18.7
Netherlands 14.6
Colombia 17.3
Israel 17.9
Sweden 15
Philippines 12.9
Chile 13.6
Australia 11.8
Malaysia 11.6

Also, interesting to see that in less than a year the UK has almost tripled its US debt holdings.


For a number of years, the economists at PwC have been charting the rise of the big emerging countries and seeking to calculate the moment when the G7 industrial nations will be surpassed by an E7 (E for Emerging) of China, India, Brazil, Russia, Mexico, Indonesia and Turkey.
To do this, they used World Bank data for growth up until 2009.However whether this is sustainable?I can not say.


GDP growth for OECD ( their calculation) :

:*178:

The world is and will be a big mess.In the years to come.
And i was actually looking forward to living peacefully until i die. ;gun;
My country is in debt to E.U. And the decission is to work until we are 65.That is developing now.
I don't even want to imagine how it will look like when the debt raizes.

Overall i see a happy future for all of us. In 2012

 

[Core]

Not to be a bastard but you're off by about 100 Bn when it comes to the netherlands.. they just bought a bunch and sent another 120Bn to greece.

Oh well no big deal this has all happened before...meanwhile... in the software industry: Record high stock rise since 2010

Good tidings <3

 

[Arachna]

I was off for about 100 Bn. O my o my. O well. I am not planning to edit it. So be my guest.

Wanna explain what do you mean by "this has all happen before?" And what is your view on the topic Zero posted? Do you think it is possible? Would you change the time frame for it?

And lol

 

[Hadriel]

1) Discuss the economic state of eastern and western nations.

Generally the trend of economic development hasn't really been indicative of any certain East-West inverse relationship. While America has been in economic decline ever since its economic resurgence during the 1990s, countries such as Brazil are developing fast. While China has enjoyed an average of 9% GDP growth per year, Japan has been in economic recession since the 1990s. Right now the trend seems to be that countries who originally had economic power and dominance during the Cold War and 1990s eras are economically declining somewhat, and relative newcomers to the economic scene have been rising.

2) Compare the economic structures of eastern and western nations.

Pardon me, for I'm not too familiar about this. As far as I know, some economic structures of the East did have certain influences from the West, such as USA's assistance of Japan's capitalist developmental economy after WWII. However, Japan's economy was still government-driven, due to the relationship between economy and politics. As for other Eastern countries such as those in Southeast Asia, more and more government organizations have been set up to develop, regulate and stabilize the economy. Western nations have had this system of government intervention in the economy for a long time, but perhaps their systems, which served as precursors for Eastern systems, are becoming rather outdated, and this may be one of the contributing factors to the economic decline of some countries that were once economic powerhouses.

3) Using this as a background, ascertain America's ability to hold onto the reins of power for another century.

Another century? I doubt it. General trend has seen USA slowly losing it's grip over the global economy. America already did lose its economic hegemony with the Nixon shocks of 1971, coupled with the rise of economic pluralism, and it has never experienced that kind of predominance since then. Given that America is slowly becoming more and more in debt, and particularly in debt to Eastern countries, I'm guessing that sooner or later eastern countries will start taking the lead. This isn't to say that USA will entirely collapse however: USA definitely has enough economic might to retain its dominance, but this dominance may be reduced to co-dominance with the introduction of new dominant economic powerhouses from the East and elsewhere.

 

[Zero Phoenix]

The Plight of the Upper-Class: You get what you deserve.

I would like to address the current economic troubles under a different lens if the situation permits. I find it ironic and humorous to see the plight of the upper class as they struggle through the current economic troubles. I see white bread suburban people tearing their hair out as they struggle to decide which bills to pay. I chuckle when I see that family skip on the crab dinner at a restaurant and instead, start stocking up on fish sticks. I observe those deluded children who swear they will never accept a used car for their 16th birthday and ironically enough, they don't receive a car at all. I look at the current generation, the descendants of the once proud WASPs, I see them broken, beaten, and destroyed by the current economic struggles and it fills me with such a giddiness that I can barely contain myself.

I am reminded of the term schadenfreude which is the German term for taking joy in the suffering of others. If that bothers anyone it may be to your benefit to know that I do not care what you think.

ZERO PHOENIX, is an Elitist not because he was born into a certain class but because he had to work his way from the bottom to the top. ZERO PHOENIX was born in poverty, went to the worst schools, and still ascended through the ranks, attended a university, has one degree under his belt and is currently working on an additional two. He had it all, he lost it all, he was homeless, and he still climbed to the top. So when I see these families that had it all, never had to work for anything, never had to fight or struggle, when I see these people who took everything for granted who believed that their lifestyle was somehow owed to them, how could I not find their plight humorous? To take joy in their suffering is natural. I would have to question my own sanity if I didn't. Poor people feel the pinch in any economy because they're poor, while people like ZERO PHOENIX who are no strangers to struggling can cope with most situations. It is the upper-class, the WASPs and their descendants that lose their minds when they miss a meal, when they can't go to their first choice of college, when they don't get that brand new car. These are the same people who for generations, took advantage of the lower-class and are now among the lower-class.

What makes this funny is that they brought it all on themselves.

These same individuals purchased expensive foreign cars rather than American made cars and sucked their own communities dry. These are the same people who voted against wages for teachers and improvements for their schools because they didn't want to have to deal with the tax hikes. These are the same idiots who voted republican in every election simply because they wanted to keep money and power out of the hands of the minorities.

Now we are faced with an economic debt unlike any in history, caused entirely by the out of control spending of the republican party. So what if George W. Bush put us in two wars which cost us billions of dollars. So long as the Blacks and the Hispanics stayed in their place the American people didn't have a problem. Now we have an debt that, well let's face it, is literally impossible to payback. To hell with the teachers, no one is raising my taxes. Of course teachers are taxpayers too, they're also consumers. But because thousands, millions of American idiots failed to support them, many teachers are out of jobs which means that the economic structure can no longer benefit from their tax dollars or their consumerism. Thanks to mom and dad buying foreign cars, there is a much lower demand for American cars, factories close, thousands are without jobs which affects other sectors due to a drop in consumerism.

Even with two wars, this entire economic deficit could have been avoided were it not for the lifestyle of the upper-class. The lower-class are parasites true. They feed on the body of the American system. But as we've seen in nature, it is possible for a parasite and a body to live together in harmony. Issue is, the American body became fat, bloated, diabetic, unhealthy due to the avarice of the upper-class. It wasn't the fact that the Bush administration placed us into two wars, it was the fact that the American people gave him the chance to do it for no other reason that to make sure the rich stay rich and the poor stay poor. Jobs don't disappear because of immigrants, jobs disappear because the upper-class like to buy foreign because it's the "civilized" thing to do. Many families wouldn't be poor if their spending wasn't out of control to begin with.

The world of the lower-class is a harsh reality where they do anything in their power to survive. They feed off others, lower their heads, eat shit, take what they can get until they die. Everyone wants something more, no one likes what they have but they are helpless. For sometime now the upper-class cows have blamed all the worlds problems on the lower-class parasites. The truth is that this economic crisis the fault of the upper-class. The truth is that America has lost her place as a superpower. The truth is that millions of pampered American citizens don't even know where their next meal is going to come from. The truth is that an entire country was destroyed in ten years. The truth is that the greed of a few million people was all that was needed to bring more than two centuries of productivity to an end. The American people knocked this country down one brick at a time and it's never getting back up.

The world of the upper-class is a world of lies where riches and social status last forever.

This economic crisis has destroyed that world of lies.

After hundreds of years the upper echelons of society have had their eyes opened.

They now see the truth, the truth called despair.

 

[noex1337]

I would like to address the current economic troubles under a different lens if the situation permits. I find it ironic and humorous to see the plight of the upper class as they struggle through the current economic troubles. I see white bread suburban people tearing their hair out as they struggle to decide which bills to pay. I chuckle when I see that family skip on the crab dinner at a restaurant and instead, start stocking up on fish sticks. I observe those deluded children who swear they will never accept a used car for their 16th birthday and ironically enough, they don't receive a car at all. I look at the current generation, the descendants of the once proud WASPs, I see them broken, beaten, and destroyed by the current economic struggles and it fills me with such a giddiness that I can barely contain myself.

I am reminded of the term schadenfreude which is the German term for taking joy in the suffering of others. If that bothers anyone it may be to your benefit to know that I do not care what you think.

ZERO PHOENIX, is an Elitist not because he was born into a certain class but because he had to work his way from the bottom to the top. ZERO PHOENIX was born in poverty, went to the worst schools, and still ascended through the ranks, attended a university, has one degree under his belt and is currently working on an additional two. He had it all, he lost it all, he was homeless, and he still climbed to the top. So when I see these families that had it all, never had to work for anything, never had to fight or struggle, when I see these people who took everything for granted who believed that their lifestyle was somehow owed to them, how could I not find their plight humorous? To take joy in their suffering is natural. I would have to question my own sanity if I didn't. Poor people feel the pinch in any economy because they're poor, while people like ZERO PHOENIX who are no strangers to struggling can cope with most situations. It is the upper-class, the WASPs and their descendants that lose their minds when they miss a meal, when they can't go to their first choice of college, when they don't get that brand new car. These are the same people who for generations, took advantage of the lower-class and are now among the lower-class.

What makes this funny is that they brought it all on themselves.

These same individuals purchased expensive foreign cars rather than American made cars and sucked their own communities dry. These are the same people who voted against wages for teachers and improvements for their schools because they didn't want to have to deal with the tax hikes. These are the same idiots who voted republican in every election simply because they wanted to keep money and power out of the hands of the minorities.

Now we are faced with an economic debt unlike any in history, caused entirely by the out of control spending of the republican party. So what if George W. Bush put us in two wars which cost us billions of dollars. So long as the Blacks and the Hispanics stayed in their place the American people didn't have a problem. Now we have an debt that, well let's face it, is literally impossible to payback. To hell with the teachers, no one is raising my taxes. Of course teachers are taxpayers too, they're also consumers. But because thousands, millions of American idiots failed to support them, many teachers are out of jobs which means that the economic structure can no longer benefit from their tax dollars or their consumerism. Thanks to mom and dad buying foreign cars, there is a much lower demand for American cars, factories close, thousands are without jobs which affects other sectors due to a drop in consumerism.

Even with two wars, this entire economic deficit could have been avoided were it not for the lifestyle of the upper-class. The lower-class are parasites true. They feed on the body of the American system. But as we've seen in nature, it is possible for a parasite and a body to live together in harmony. Issue is, the American body became fat, bloated, diabetic, unhealthy due to the avarice of the upper-class. It wasn't the fact that the Bush administration placed us into two wars, it was the fact that the American people gave him the chance to do it for no other reason that to make sure the rich stay rich and the poor stay poor. Jobs don't disappear because of immigrants, jobs disappear because the upper-class like to buy foreign because it's the "civilized" thing to do. Many families wouldn't be poor if their spending wasn't out of control to begin with.

The world of the lower-class is a harsh reality where they do anything in their power to survive. They feed off others, lower their heads, eat shit, take what they can get until they die. Everyone wants something more, no one likes what they have but they are helpless. For sometime now the upper-class cows have blamed all the worlds problems on the lower-class parasites. The truth is that this economic crisis the fault of the upper-class. The truth is that America has lost her place as a superpower. The truth is that millions of pampered American citizens don't even know where their next meal is going to come from. The truth is that an entire country was destroyed in ten years. The truth is that the greed of a few million people was all that was needed to bring more than two centuries of productivity to an end. The American people knocked this country down one brick at a time and it's never getting back up.

The world of the upper-class is a world of lies where riches and social status last forever.

This economic crisis has destroyed that world of lies.

After hundreds of years the upper echelons of society have had their eyes opened.

They now see the truth, the truth called despair.

[MENTION=170]Zero Phoenix[/MENTION]: Don't you know? Taxing the lower class will end the US debt.

http://www.thedailyshow.com/watch/t...-class-warfare---the-poor-s-free-ride-is-over

 

[Core]

I was off for about 100 Bn. O my o my. O well. I am not planning to edit it. So be my guest.

Wanna explain what do you mean by "this has all happen before?" And what is your view on the topic Zero posted? Do you think it is possible? Would you change the time frame for it?

And lol

Thought I had already replied to this.. but anyway the bankruptcy of the East India Trading company was the first crash, which affected.... the entire colonized world... but hey were still here.

The Great depression. You can try to argue that did not affect the entire world! but it did, there was no internet/media that would let people feel like there WAS a rest of the world though, and ofcourse the tiny little wars going on didnt help show an international decline since they were falsely attributed to war-effort.

Anyway, see the damn market as a biiiig whoopie cushion... every once in a while someone has to sit on it so the world can make some noise. The only difference this time around is that the internet has giving everyone a voice to bitch about it... so conspiracy theories'a'plenty.

Oh and Zero penix? Thats middle class, or upper middle class, Cause up here, in the rarefied atmosphere where we have forgotten what shit even looks like we havent noticed any economical decline noteworthy, I have made more money in the last 2 years with my investments then I would if it was a stable market. So I am completely unaware which "upper-class" you are referring to.

 

[-lexus-]

Thought I had already replied to this.. but anyway the bankruptcy of the East India Trading company was the first crash, which affected.... the entire colonized world... but hey were still here.

The Great depression. You can try to argue that did not affect the entire world! but it did, there was no internet/media that would let people feel like there WAS a rest of the world though, and ofcourse the tiny little wars going on didnt help show an international decline since they were falsely attributed to war-effort.

Anyway, see the damn market as a biiiig whoopie cushion... every once in a while someone has to sit on it so the world can make some noise. The only difference this time around is that the internet has giving everyone a voice to bitch about it... so conspiracy theories'a'plenty.

Sure, but each of those crashes did lead to a shifting balance of powers. That will be the end result of these crisis as well. An old order becomes less powerful and others rise to prominence.

 

[Core]

Shift shift shift, Shifts arent bad. Unless you claim we are shifting to Mt. Doom.

 

[-lexus-]

Shift shift shift, Shifts arent bad. Unless you claim we are shifting to Mt. Doom.

Dont have to be bad, but it does lead to a radically different world. Thus the world as we know it, namely a world where America is the only superpower is going to end, America is gonna lose a lot of its power, while others rise up. Old world is dead, new world is born.

 

[Core]

Dont have to be bad, but it does lead to a radically different world. Thus the world as we know it, namely a world where America is the only superpower is going to end, America is gonna lose a lot of its power, while others rise up. Old world is dead, new world is born.

Thats putting it just a little bit too dramatic dont you think -.-

 

[-lexus-]

Dramatic but true.

 

[Core]

But thats just it, The shift doesnt happen ipso facto, The united Kngdom after the fall of the East india company still maintained its dominance, and both before and after the great depression the US managed to keep its stance as a super power.

Even if it loses its momentum just because a recession, that doesnt mean other countries are suddenly going to start over taking it with great speed.

Which is why I said putting it just a little bit too dramatic.

 

[-lexus-]

But thats just it, The shift doesnt happen ipso facto, The united Kngdom after the fall of the East india company still maintained its dominance, and both before and after the great depression the US managed to keep its stance as a super power.

Even if it loses its momentum just because a recession, that doesnt mean other countries are suddenly going to start over taking it with great speed.

Which is why I said putting it just a little bit too dramatic.

True, it wont happen from one day to the other, and the fall of the trading company wasnt what killed the UK's position of power. Their real decline started during WW1 and was final after WW2. The whole interwar period was whats slowly killing their position, and not just theirs, but all of Europe's.

The US fall from grace started at 9-11 and will be complete when they either go bankrupt or return to an isolationist policy.

 

[Core]

Its economic fall from grace started during the carter administration, but thats neither here nor there.